Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) (Buy) - Apr-26 results

Apr-26 results

BBCA has published its bank-only Apr-26 results, with headline profit of IDR4.8tn (-29% q-q; +6% y-y), bringing YTD Apr-26 profit to IDR20.8tn (+3% y-y) – accounting for 36% of our FY26F estimates. Despite the soft quarterly results, we believe it is still on track to meet or exceed our current FY26F earnings projections. We attribute the stable results to the following: (1) stable net interest margin (NIM) of 5.3% (-50bp y-y), largely driven by a slightly lower asset yield of 6.1% (-40bp y-y), and steady (and possibly the lowest among its peers) funding cost of 1.05% (-2bp y-y); (2) an ultra-low (and steady) cost ratio of ~19% (possibly the lowest among major banks; ~35-45% for SOE bank peers), which we credit to the bank’s ongoing investments in technology; and (3) a low credit cost of 30bp (-10bp y-y) compared with its peers, reflecting the bank’s healthy asset quality.

Net interest income arrived at IDR6.5tn (-5% q-q; -1% y-y), bringing YTD Apr-26 NII to IDR26.2tn (flat y-y) – accounting for ~29% of our FY26F forecast. The softening of NII was primarily driven by NIM compression, with annualized NIM easing to 5.2% in Apr-26 from 5.5%–5.6% in prior months, reflecting the lagged repricing impact of Bank Indonesia's 25bp rate cut in January 2026 flowing through the loan book. Headline PPOP reached IDR5.9tn (-30% q-q, -1% y-y), bringing YTD Apr-26 PPOP to IDR26.4tn (+2% y-y) – tracking ahead of the pro-rata run-rate – supported by continued cost discipline (monthly CIR at 19% in April, improving from 24% in December 2025). Write-off and credit cost trends in Apr-26 appear to be showing a downward trajectory, which suggested provision releases and resulted in a lower LLR of 3.1%.

On the balance sheet, the bank booked loans and deposit growth of +5% y-y and +9% y-y, respectively, which brought LDR to 77% (-300bp y-y). We expect loan growth to remain stable in subsequent months, towards FY26F growth of 8-10% (according to management guidance). Our key observation on deposit growth suggests high-quality growth coming from current and savings products which rose +18% and 7% y-y, respectively.

Valuation and risks

Our TP of IDR10,100 is based on a DuPont analysis, with key parameters as: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, beta of 0.9x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 24.5%. Our TP implies 4.1x FY26F P/B (vs current price valuation of 3.3x) and 20.8x FY26F P/E (vs current price valuation of 16.9x). Risks are worsening economic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit cost and opex growth.

Fig. 2: BBCA – monthly results

BBCA - Monthly Results IDRbn	Apr-25	Dec-25	Mar-26	Apr-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD-26	YTD-25	YTD Y-Y	vs FY26F	FY26F
Int income	7,630	7,774	7,904	7,647	-3%	0%	30,537	30,345	1%	30%	102,802
Int expense	1,088	1,033	1,078	1,144	6%	5%	4,351	4,080	7%	33%	13,324
NII	6,542	6,741	6,826	6,502	-5%	-1%	26,186	26,265	0%	29%	89,478
PPOP	6,009	5,323	8,541	5,947	-30%	-1%	26,358	25,734	2%	34%	78,388
Provisions	448	(357)	605	(28)	-105%	-106%	1,068	1,275	-16%	19%	5,540
Net profit	4,515	4,433	6,790	4,799	-29%	6%	20,817	20,211	3%	36%	58,249
M-M loan growth	1.2%	4.4%	0.9%	0.3%
Y-Y loan growth	12.8%	7.5%	5.5%	4.5%
YTD loan growth	3.1%	7.5%	7.5%	7.8%
M-M deposit growth	-1.7%	1.7%	2.7%	-1.2%
Y-Y deposit growth	4.4%	10.0%	8.1%	8.6%
YTD deposit growth	3.5%	10.0%	13.7%	12.4%
LDR	80%	79%	76%	77%
NIM	5.6%	5.5%	5.5%	5.2%			5.3%	5.8%
Risk-Adj NIM	5.2%	5.8%	5.0%	5.2%			5.1%	5.5%
LLR	3.6%	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
Credit cost (CoC)	0.59%	-0.46%	0.76%	-0.04%			0.3%	0.4%
CASA ratio	83%	85%	85%	85%
Monthly CIR	18%	24%	12%	19%
Loan-to-CASA	97%	93%	90%	91%
B/S ROAE (annualised)	22.5%	19.7%	30.7%	22.8%
Risk-adj NIM	5.0%	6.0%	4.7%	5.2%
B/S ROAA (annualised)	3.7%	3.5%	5.2%	3.7%
Asset yield (annualised)	6.5%	6.4%	6.3%	6.1%			6.2%	6.7%
COF (annualised)	1.11%	1.02%	1.03%	1.08%			1.05%	1.07%
CASA Y-Y %	6.0%	12.9%	11.0%	11.3%
PPOP Y-Y %	-5.8%	5.5%	6.4%	-1.0%	M-M	Y-Y	YTD-26	YTD-25
Loans	923,096	961,904	962,123	965,017	0%	5%	0%	3%
Deposits	1,147,755	1,219,568	1,261,082	1,246,053	-1%	9%	2%	4%
CA	365,399	431,029	447,810	432,687	-3%	18%	0%	2%
Savings	585,874	600,636	626,106	626,142	0%	7%	4%	6%
TD	196,483	187,902	187,167	187,225	0%	-5%	0%	1%
CASA	951,272	1,031,665	1,073,915	1,058,828	-1%	11%	3%	4%
Equities	242,984	271,658	250,755	255,276	2%	5%	-6%	-4%
Total Assets	1,456,437	1,537,371	1,590,091	1,564,904	-2%	7%	2%	4%

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.

Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 10,100
Closing price 20 May 2026	IDR 5,975

Research Analysts

Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Tags: BANKS, Bank Central Asia, BBCA, BBCA JK, BBCA IJ, Erwin Wijaya

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) (Buy) - Apr-26 results

Apr-26 results

Fig. 1: BBCA – YTD Apr-26 y-y performance %

Fig. 2: BBCA – monthly results

Fig. 3: BBCA - 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBCA - LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Rating Table

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - Towards more commercial micro

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ - Buy - Operating 1H24 results were below

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - YTD Jul-24 bank only results - steady progress

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - ROAE uptrend on positive micro trends

Bank Central Asia -BBCA IJ- Buy - Steady growth reiterate Buy new TP IDR13200

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) (Buy) - Apr-26 results

Fig. 1: BBCA – YTD Apr-26 y-y performance %

Fig. 2: BBCA – monthly results

Fig. 3: BBCA - 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBCA - LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Related Books

Password

Embed Code

Report Issue

Site Languages