Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Decent 1Q26 results

Decent 1Q26 results

BBNI delivered a decent 1Q26 performance, broadly in line with our FY26F consolidated earnings expectations. Headline net profit came in at IDR5.7tn (+14.9% q-q; +5.2% y-y), accounting for ~25% of our FY26 forecast. Management maintains full-year guidance across key metrics: loan growth at ~8–10% (with 1Q26’s elevated ~20% y-y expected to normalize following front-loaded large corporate disbursements, including Agrinas), NIM at ~3.5–3.8% (with downside risk toward the lower end if funding competition intensifies), and credit cost at ~1.0–1.2% (with risks skewed to the upper bound given the macro backdrop).

Macro risks remain a key overhang, with Bank Indonesia’s easing window effectively closed and the potential for further SRBI issuance or even policy rate hikes should rupiah pressures persist into 3Q26. Under a severe stress scenario (crude oil at USD150/bbl, >IDR20,000/USD, 10Y yields >9%), BBNI’s internal estimates suggest NPL could rise by ~1.6pp and credit costs by ~1.1pp, with NIM compressing into the low-3% range—implying materially weaker earnings, though still profitable and above minimum CAR. Offsetting this, BBNI retains decent visibility on wholesale loan growth, supported by a pipeline in telco, power, and commodity sectors (oil & gas, mining), which should help cushion still-soft private sector demand.

1Q26 results summary

NII reached IDR11.1tn (+9.6% y-y), accounting for ~25% of our FY26F estimate. NII was supported by strong loan volume growth (+20.1% y-y), partially offset by NIM compression to 3.4% (from 3.9% in 1Q25) as benchmark rate cuts of 125bp in 2025 fed through asset yields. Loan yield contracted ~50bp y-y amid intense wholesale competition, while funding cost decline has been gradual given SRBI headwinds.
PPOP reached IDR8.9tn (+9.5% y-y), accounting for ~25% of our FY26F estimate. We believe the q-q decline reflects management's deliberate front-loading of operating expenses (+12.4% y-y, CIR: 46.9%), designed to smooth the earnings profile over the remainder of the year. Full-year opex guidance is maintained below 7%.
Provision expense reached IDR2.0tn (+26.5% y-y), accounting for ~20% of our FY26F number. The y-y growth reflects intentional provisioning acceleration, front-loading buffer provisions ahead of anticipated macroeconomic stress from Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices.
Net profit reached IDR5.7tn (+5.2% y-y), accounting for ~27% of our FY26F number.
Loans grew by ~20% y-y, predominantly toward the government-related programs. Out of the IDR55tn loans toward Agrinas, less than IDR5tn were utilized while the remaining balance of ~IDR50tn were deposited back into the bank. Hence, BBNI is in a better position compared to its peer (BMRI IJ, Buy), in our view.
On the funding side, CASA growth of 27% y-y (current accounts +40% y-y; savings +10% y-y) stood out. Time deposits surged +53% y-y, largely attributable to ~IDR68tn in government SAL (excess funds) fund placements. Management is conservatively maintaining LDR at 83.5% (vs. 93.4% in 1Q25) to prepare for potential government deposit withdrawals that could occur anytime through September.

Valuation and risks

We derive our TP of IDR5,500 using DuPont analysis with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 8.5%, beta of 1.04x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 15.6%. Our TP implies 1.2x FY26F P/B (vs current price valuation of 1.0x) and 9.9x FY26F P/E (vs current price valuation of 8.1x). Key risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit costs and opex growth.

Fig. 2: BBNI – quarterly results

BBNI IDRbn	4Q24	1Q25	4Q25	1Q26	Q-Q %	Y-Y %	2026F	vsFY26F %
NII	10,593	10,168	11,242	11,142	(0.9)	9.6	44,795	25%
Total op inc	17,620	15,249	18,471	16,802	(9.0)	10.2	69,226	24%
PPOP	9,292	8,144	10,218	8,919	(12.7)	9.5	35,732	25%
Prov	2,618	1,593	4,375	2,014	(54.0)	26.5	10,142	20%
PBT	6,675	6,552	5,843	6,905	18.2	5.4	25,590	27%
NP	5,155	5,380	4,926	5,661	14.9	5.2	21,025	27%
					Q-Q %	Y-Y %
Gross Loans	775,872	765,469	899,531	919,320	2.2	20.1
Deposits	805,511	819,580	1,040,834	1,100,582	5.7	34.3
- Current accounts	305,734	319,983	439,499	446,882	1.7	39.7
- Savings Accounts	257,544	257,824	286,460	284,689	(0.6)	10.4
- Time deposits	242,233	241,774	314,875	369,011	17.2	52.6
Equities	159,814	166,024	169,473	145,549	(14.1)	(12.3)
Total assets	1,130,129	1,146,583	1,362,055	1,426,758	4.8	24.4
CASA %	69.9	70.5	69.7	66.5
Asset to equity x	7.1	6.9	8.0	9.8
Ratios %	4Q24	1Q25	4Q25	1Q26
Gross Yield %	7.0	6.4	6.0	5.9
COF %	3.1	3.1	2.7	2.8
Spread %	3.9	3.3	3.3	3.1
NIM	4.2	3.9	3.7	3.4
Loan yoy %	11.6	10.1	15.9	20.1
Loan qoq %	5.6	(1.3)	10.8	2.2
Deposit yoy %	(0.6)	5.0	29.2	34.3
Deposit qoq %	4.6	1.7	11.4	5.7
ROAE	13.1	13.2	11.8	14.4
CAR	21.7	22.4	20.8	18.7
CIR	47.3	46.6	44.7	46.9
LDR	96.3	93.4	86.4	83.5
CoC	1.4	0.8	2.0	0.9
NPL	2.0	2.0	1.9	1.9
NPL cov	253.4	260.6	206.1	205.6
LARs	10.3	10.9	8.5	8.6
LAR Cov	48.3	46.8	47.0	46.1
LLR	5.0	5.1	4.0	4.0
Risk-adj NIM %	3.1	3.3	2.3	2.8

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.

Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 5,500
Closing price 28 April 2026	IDR 3,790

Research Analysts

Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Tags: BANKS, Bank Negara Indonesia, BBNI, BBNI JK, BBNI IJ, Erwin Wijaya

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Decent 1Q26 results

Decent 1Q26 results

Fig. 1: BBNI 1Q26 y-y summary %

Fig. 2: BBNI – quarterly results

Fig. 3: BBNI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBNI LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Rating Table

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - Towards more commercial micro

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ - Buy - Operating 1H24 results were below

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - YTD Jul-24 bank only results - steady progress

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - ROAE uptrend on positive micro trends

Bank Central Asia -BBCA IJ- Buy - Steady growth reiterate Buy new TP IDR13200

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Decent 1Q26 results

Fig. 1: BBNI 1Q26 y-y summary %

Fig. 2: BBNI – quarterly results

Fig. 3: BBNI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBNI LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Related Books

Password

Embed Code

Report Issue

Site Languages