Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results
BBCA’s bank-only Jul-24 earnings of IDR4.9tr (+1% m-m / +17% y-y) brings YTD Jul-24 headline profit to
Earnings adjustments ~1.3-3.5% for FY26-27F
BBNI delivered FY25 results broadly in line with our expectations, reporting net profit of IDR20.0tn (-6.6% y-y), equivalent to ~99% of our FY25F forecast. Looking ahead, we expect system liquidity conditions to gradually improve in 2026F, supporting funding costs and limiting further pressure on margins. This is underpinned by higher expected government spending to stimulate economic growth, increased Ministry of Finance fund placements, and Danantara’s (unlisted) placement of dividend proceeds into SOE banks, in our view. These dynamics have already supported deposit growth and should continue to drive M2 expansion (+10.6% y-y in Dec-25), easing banking system liquidity, in our view.
Management guided for FY26F loan growth of 8-10%, NIM of 3.5-3.8%, and CoC of 1.0-1.2%. BBNI also disclosed total disbursement of ~IDR47tn to Agrinas (unlisted) for the Village Cooperatives (Koperasi Merah Putih) program.
NII rose to IDR11.2tn (+12.7% q-q; +6.1% y-y), bringing FY25 NII to IDR41.1tn (-0.4% y-y; ~100% of FY25F). PPOP increased to IDR10.2tn (+27.4% q-q; +10.0% y-y); FY25 PPOP reached IDR34.3tn (flat y-y; ~104% of FY25F). Credit costs totaled IDR4.4tn, implying cost of capital (CoC) of 200bp (+110bp q-q; +60bp y-y) due to flood-related provisioning in Sumatra. Reported NIM improved to 3.7% (+20bp q-q; -50bp y-y), while risk-adjusted NIM declined to 2.3% (-50bp q-q; -80bp y-y). We expect NIM and CoF to improve or remain stable as liquidity conditions normalize in 2026F. Net profit came in at IDR4.9tn (-1.9% q-q; -4.5% y-y), bringing FY25 earnings to IDR20.0tn (-6.6% y-y; ~99% of FY25F). The bank’s balance sheet remained strong, with loans and deposits growing 16% y-y and 29% y-y, respectively. Loan growth was led by the corporate (+20% y-y) and SME (+11% y-y) segments, while deposits were driven by CA (+44% y-y), SA (+11% y-y), and TD (+30% y-y), supported by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Danantara placements. CASA improved to 69.7% (+410bp q-q), while LDR eased to 86.4%.
Valuation and risks
We derive our TP of IDR5,500 (unchanged) using DuPont analysis with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5% (unchanged), an equity risk premium of 7.8% (unchanged), growth of 8.5% (unchanged), beta of 1.04x (unchanged) and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 15.6% (down from 16.0% previously). Our TP implies 1.2x FY26F P/B (vs current price valuation of 1.0x) and 9.9x FY26F P/E (vs current price valuation of 8.1x). Key risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit costs and opex growth.
Earnings adjustments by ~1.3-3.5% for FY26-27F
Post-results, we revise our FY26-27F earnings and introduce FY28F. We expect earnings momentum to extend into 2026F, supporting sustained high dividend payouts. We expect that this will be driven by stronger loan growth (sector credit growth of 9-11% in 2026F vs 8-10% in 2025), improving business credit demand, better government policy execution, and stabilizing lending rates near post-3Q25 trough levels. Accordingly, we adjust FY26-27F earnings by ~1.3-3.5%, while maintaining our TP at IDR5,500.
We revised our CAR-adjusted ROAE assumption lower to reflect a more normalized, risk-adjusted return profile for BBNI as the bank operates with structurally higher capital buffers and a more conservative balance sheet stance. Importantly, this adjustment reflects valuation discipline rather than weaker earnings fundamentals.
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| PPOP (bn) | 34,120 | 35,325 | 35,732 | 37,234 | 38,105 | 0 | 39,093 |
| Reported net profit (bn) | 20,041 | 20,748 | 21,025 | 21,680 | 22,435 | 0 | 23,411 |
| Normalised net profit (bn) | 20,041 | 20,748 | 21,025 | 21,680 | 22,435 | 0 | 23,411 |
| FD normalised EPS | 537.32 | 556.29 | 563.71 | 581.26 | 601.51 | 627.69 | |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | -6.6 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.4 | |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 8.5 | – | 8.1 | – | 7.6 | – | 7.3 |
| Price/adj. book (x) | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | 0.9 | – | 0.9 |
| Price/book (x) | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | 0.9 | – | 0.9 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 8.1 | – | 7.6 | – | 8.0 | – | 8.5 |
| ROE (%) | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.1 | |
| ROA (%) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
Profit and loss (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | ||||||||||||||
Interest income | 69,832 | 73,306 | 79,053 | 84,531 | 89,092 | ||||||||||||||
Interest expense | -28,585 | -32,229 | -34,258 | -35,796 | -38,388 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest income | 41,246 | 41,076 | 44,795 | 48,735 | 50,704 | ||||||||||||||
Net fees and commissions | 10,599 | 11,168 | 11,986 | 12,279 | 13,261 | ||||||||||||||
Trading related profits | 3,028 | 3,923 | 3,636 | 3,636 | 3,636 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating revenue | 9,022 | 8,809 | 8,809 | 8,809 | 8,809 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income | 22,649 | 23,900 | 24,431 | 24,724 | 25,706 | ||||||||||||||
Operating income | 63,896 | 64,976 | 69,226 | 73,459 | 76,410 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -2,417 | -2,619 | -2,722 | -2,828 | -2,933 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating expenses | -12,914 | -13,708 | -14,120 | -14,625 | -15,141 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | -13,782 | -14,529 | -16,651 | -17,900 | -19,243 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-provision op profit | 34,783 | 34,120 | 35,732 | 38,105 | 39,093 | ||||||||||||||
Provisions for bad debt | -8,211 | -9,724 | -10,142 | -10,805 | -10,609 | ||||||||||||||
Other provision charges | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 26,573 | 24,396 | 25,590 | 27,300 | 28,485 | ||||||||||||||
Other non-op income | -4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-tax profit | 26,569 | 24,397 | 25,591 | 27,302 | 28,486 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -4,900 | -4,286 | -4,496 | -4,797 | -5,005 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 21,669 | 20,111 | 21,095 | 22,505 | 23,482 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interests | -206 | -70 | -70 | -70 | -70 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 21,464 | 20,041 | 21,025 | 22,435 | 23,411 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 21,464 | 20,041 | 21,025 | 22,435 | 23,411 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -10,455 | -13,951 | -13,036 | -13,677 | -14,594 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 11,009 | 6,089 | 7,988 | 8,758 | 8,817 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Net interest income | -3.9 | -0.4 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income | 14.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest expenses | 2.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-provision earnings | -0.5 | -1.9 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit | 2.7 | -6.6 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | 2.7 | -6.6 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | 2.7 | -6.6 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||
Loan growth | 13.8 | 17.2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Interest earning assets | 5.0 | 21.3 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||
Interest bearing liabilities | 3.5 | 23.8 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Asset growth | 4.0 | 20.5 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||
Deposit growth | -0.6 | 29.2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | ||||||||||||||
Cash and equivalents | 13,710 | 13,352 | 10,211 | 10,977 | 11,800 | ||||||||||||||
Inter-bank lending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Deposits with central bank | 51,669 | 79,989 | 59,458 | 63,917 | 68,711 | ||||||||||||||
Total securities | 188,575 | 233,438 | 270,284 | 284,938 | 299,328 | ||||||||||||||
Other int earning assets | 39,150 | 59,718 | 51,487 | 54,480 | 57,697 | ||||||||||||||
Gross loans | 775,872 | 899,531 | 944,507 | 1,020,068 | 1,101,673 | ||||||||||||||
Less provisions | -38,685 | -35,861 | -38,255 | -41,313 | -44,174 | ||||||||||||||
Net loans | 737,187 | 863,670 | 906,252 | 978,755 | 1,057,499 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term investments | 637 | 652 | 724 | 724 | 724 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 30,408 | 31,113 | 30,390 | 29,563 | 28,630 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other non IEAs | 68,793 | 80,123 | 82,936 | 89,148 | 95,826 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 1,130,129 | 1,362,055 | 1,411,742 | 1,512,502 | 1,620,215 | ||||||||||||||
Customer deposits | 805,511 | 1,040,834 | 1,092,876 | 1,174,842 | 1,262,955 | ||||||||||||||
Bank deposits, CDs, debentures | 47,414 | 33,067 | 34,721 | 37,325 | 40,124 | ||||||||||||||
Other int bearing liabilities | 60,631 | 57,380 | 42,592 | 45,667 | 48,972 | ||||||||||||||
Total int bearing liabilities | 913,555 | 1,131,282 | 1,170,189 | 1,257,833 | 1,352,051 | ||||||||||||||
Non-int bearing liabilities | 50,025 | 54,433 | 57,155 | 61,441 | 66,050 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 963,581 | 1,185,715 | 1,227,344 | 1,319,275 | 1,418,101 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 4,477 | 4,609 | 4,680 | 4,750 | 4,820 | ||||||||||||||
Common stock | 9,055 | 9,055 | 9,055 | 9,055 | 9,055 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 118,244 | 123,855 | 131,843 | 140,601 | 149,419 | ||||||||||||||
Reserves for credit losses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other equity | 34,773 | 38,821 | 38,821 | 38,821 | 38,821 | ||||||||||||||
Shareholders' equity | 162,071 | 171,730 | 179,719 | 188,477 | 197,294 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities and equity | 1,130,129 | 1,362,055 | 1,411,742 | 1,512,502 | 1,620,215 | ||||||||||||||
Non-perf assets | 14,836 | 15,253 | 17,373 | 18,241 | 19,701 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet ratios (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Loans to deposits | 96.3 | 86.4 | 86.4 | 86.8 | 87.2 | ||||||||||||||
Equity to assets | 14.3 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||
Asset quality & capital | |||||||||||||||||||
NPAs/gross loans (%) | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||
Bad debt charge/gross loans (%) | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||
Loss reserves/assets (%) | 3.42 | 2.63 | 2.71 | 2.73 | 2.73 | ||||||||||||||
Loss reserves/NPAs (%) | 260.8 | 235.1 | 220.2 | 226.5 | 224.2 | ||||||||||||||
Tier 1 capital ratio (%) | 21.5 | 20.2 | 18.5 | 18.4 | 17.9 | ||||||||||||||
Total capital ratio (%) | 23.2 | 21.7 | 19.8 | 19.7 | 19.2 | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 575.47 | 537.32 | 563.71 | 601.51 | 627.69 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 575.47 | 537.32 | 563.71 | 601.51 | 627.69 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 575.47 | 537.32 | 563.71 | 601.51 | 627.69 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 280.31 | 374.06 | 349.53 | 366.69 | 391.28 | ||||||||||||||
PPOP PS (IDR) | 932.60 | 914.81 | 958.02 | 1,021.66 | 1,048.15 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 4,345.39 | 4,604.36 | 4,818.54 | 5,053.36 | 5,289.77 | ||||||||||||||
ABVPS (IDR) | 4,345.39 | 4,604.36 | 4,818.54 | 5,053.36 | 5,289.77 | ||||||||||||||
NTAPS (IDR) | 4,345.39 | 4,604.36 | 4,818.54 | 5,053.36 | 5,289.77 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 6.1 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||
Price/adjusted book (x) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest margin (%) | 4.10 | 3.60 | 3.52 | 3.62 | 3.51 | ||||||||||||||
Yield on assets (%) | 6.94 | 6.43 | 6.21 | 6.28 | 6.17 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of int bearing liab (%) | 3.18 | 3.15 | 2.98 | 2.95 | 2.94 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest spread (%) | 3.76 | 3.28 | 3.23 | 3.33 | 3.23 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income (%) | 35.4 | 36.8 | 35.3 | 33.7 | 33.6 | ||||||||||||||
Cost to income (%) | 45.6 | 47.5 | 48.4 | 48.1 | 48.8 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 18.4 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 48.7 | 69.6 | 62.0 | 61.0 | 62.3 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 13.7 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (%) | 1.94 | 1.61 | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.49 | ||||||||||||||
Operating ROE (%) | 17.0 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||
Operating ROA (%) | 2.40 | 1.96 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.82 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
| BBNI IDRbn | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | Q-Q % | Y-Y % | YTD 25 | YTD 24 | Y-Y % | 2025 | vsFY25F % |
| NII | 10,593 | 10,168 | 9,691 | 9,975 | 11,242 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 41,076 | 41,246 | (0.4) | 40,917 | 100% |
| Total op inc | 17,620 | 15,249 | 14,874 | 16,383 | 18,471 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 64,976 | 63,896 | 1.7 | 63,712 | 102% |
| PPOP | 9,292 | 8,144 | 7,941 | 8,022 | 10,218 | 27.4 | 10.0 | 34,325 | 34,359 | (0.1) | 32,884 | 104% |
| Prov | 2,618 | 1,593 | 2,122 | 1,840 | 4,375 | 137.8 | 67.1 | 9,930 | 7,787 | 27.5 | 7,666 | 130% |
| PBT | 6,675 | 6,552 | 5,819 | 6,182 | 5,843 | (5.5) | (12.5) | 24,396 | 26,573 | (8.2) | 25,218 | 97% |
| NP | 5,155 | 5,380 | 4,714 | 5,021 | 4,926 | (1.9) | (4.5) | 20,041 | 21,464 | (6.6) | 20,324 | 99% |
| Q-Q % | Y-Y % | YTD-25 | YTD-24 | |||||||||
| Gross Loans | 775,872 | 765,469 | 778,681 | 812,195 | 899,531 | 10.8 | 15.9 | 15.9% | 11.6% | |||
| Deposits | 805,511 | 819,580 | 899,865 | 934,326 | 1,040,834 | 11.4 | 29.2 | 29.2% | -0.6% | |||
| - Current accounts | 305,734 | 319,983 | 381,639 | 344,455 | 439,499 | 27.6 | 43.8 | 43.8% | -11.5% | |||
| - Savings Accounts | 257,544 | 257,824 | 265,915 | 268,928 | 286,460 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 11.2% | 11.0% | |||
| - Time deposits | 242,233 | 241,774 | 252,311 | 320,943 | 314,875 | (1.9) | 30.0 | 30.0% | 3.8% | |||
| Equities | 159,814 | 166,024 | 158,112 | 164,500 | 169,473 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0% | 8.1% | |||
| Total assets | 1,130,129 | 1,146,583 | 1,201,653 | 1,269,486 | 1,362,055 | 7.3 | 20.5 | 20.5% | 4.0% | |||
| CASA % | 69.9 | 70.5 | 72.0 | 65.6 | 69.7 | |||||||
| Asset to equity x | 7.1 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 |
| Ratios % | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 |
| Gross Yield % | 7.0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| COF % | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Spread % | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| NIM | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| Loan yoy % | 11.6 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 15.9 |
| Loan qoq % | 5.6 | (1.3) | 1.7 | 4.3 | 10.8 |
| Deposit yoy % | (0.6) | 5.0 | 16.5 | 21.4 | 29.2 |
| Deposit qoq % | 4.6 | 1.7 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 11.4 |
| ROAE | 13.1 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 11.8 |
| CAR | 21.7 | 22.4 | 21.3 | 19.5 | 20.8 |
| CIR | 47.3 | 46.6 | 46.6 | 51.0 | 44.7 |
| LDR | 96.3 | 93.4 | 86.5 | 86.9 | 86.4 |
| CoC | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| NPL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| NPL cov | 253.4 | 260.6 | 241.1 | 220.9 | 206.1 |
| LARs | 10.3 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 8.5 |
| LAR Cov | 48.3 | 46.8 | 42.7 | 41.5 | 47.0 |
| LLR | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Risk-adj NIM % | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| BBNI Dupont % of assets | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 |
| Int inc | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Int exp | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Net int inc | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Other income | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Op. inc | 6.4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.6 |
| Opex | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| PPOP | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| Provisions | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| PBT | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Net profit | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Assets to Equities | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.6 |
| ROAE | 12.5 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 11.3 |
| BBNI Loans IDRbn | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | Q-Q % | Y-Y % |
| Corporate | 441,000 | 426,000 | 435,800 | 450,700 | 518,200 | 15.0 | 17.5 |
| Small and medium | 176,200 | 177,600 | 178,600 | 193,900 | 206,900 | 6.7 | 17.4 |
| Consumer | 142,500 | 144,900 | 147,000 | 150,200 | 156,200 | 4.0 | 9.6 |
| Others | 16,200 | 16,900 | 17,200 | 17,400 | 18,300 | 5.2 | 13.0 |
| Total | 775,900 | 765,400 | 778,600 | 812,200 | 899,600 | 10.8 | 15.9 |
| Medium | 109,800 | 103,900 | 105,400 | 119,700 | 131,800 | 10.1 | 20.0 |
| As % of loans | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | ||
| Corporate | 56.8 | 55.7 | 56.0 | 55.5 | 57.6 | ||
| Small and medium | 22.7 | 23.2 | 22.9 | 23.9 | 23.0 | ||
| Consumer | 18.4 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 18.5 | 17.4 | ||
| Syariah and others | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | ||
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | ||
| BBNI - Consumers | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | Q-Q % | Y-Y % |
| Mortgage | 66,500 | 67,600 | 68,400 | 69,800 | 72,700.0 | 4.2 | 9.3 |
| Auto | 3,000 | 3,100 | 3,100 | 3,100 | 3,600.0 | 16.1 | 20.0 |
| Others (Personal / CC) | 73,000 | 74,200 | 75,500 | 77,400 | 79,800.0 | 3.1 | 9.3 |
| Total | 142,500 | 144,900 | 147,000 | 150,300 | 156,100 | 3.9 | 9.5 |
| Bank Negara Indonesia - TP Derivation | |||
| NEW | OLD | Remarks | |
| Risk free rate % | 6.5 | 6.5 | |
| Equity risk premium % | 7.8 | 7.8 | |
| Beta x | 1.04 | 1.04 | |
| Cost of capital % | 14.6% | 14.7% | down from 14.7 |
| Growth rate (2-yr Cagr) % | 8.5% | 8.5% | |
| CAR-adj ROAE % | 15.6% | 16.0% | down from 16.0 |
| Target P/B x | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Implied target price (IDR) | 5,597 | 5,499 | rounded to IDR5,500 (unchanged) |
| BVPS FY26F (IDR) | 4,819 | 4,546 | |
| Implied PER 26F | 9.9 | 9.7 | |
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Remains | IDR 5,500 |
| Closing price 3 February 2026 | IDR 4,590 |
| Implied upside | +19.8% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 10,115.4 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 13.4 |
M cap (USDmn) | 10,115.4 |
Free float (%) | 40.0 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 13.4 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | 7.7 | 3.6 | -4.0 |
Absolute (USD) | 7.5 | 3.0 | -5.8 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 14.9 | 5.5 | -19.5 |
Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)
saya
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