Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Jan-26 results: Decent start

Jan-26 results: Decent start

BBNI kicked off 2026 with decent bank-only Jan-26 results, reporting headline profit of IDR1.7tn (+3.5% y-y). While still very early, it seems to be on track to meet or exceed our current FY26F earnings projection. We expect system liquidity conditions to gradually improve in 2026F, supporting funding costs and limiting further pressure on margins. This is underpinned by higher expected government spending to stimulate economic growth, increased Ministry of Finance fund placements, and Danantara’s (unlisted) placement of dividend proceeds into SOE banks, in our view. These dynamics have already supported deposits growth and should continue to drive M2 expansion (+10.6% y-y in Dec-25), easing banking system liquidity, in our view.

Meanwhile, with blended asset yield hovering at ~6.3%, the bank reported NIM of 3.6%. This brings net interest income to IDR3.7tn (+17.4% y-y). Headline PPOP reached IDR2.8tn (+13.9% y-y), which is on track to comfortably meet our FY26F PPOP estimate of IDR35.7tn. Write-off trends in Jan-26 appear to be showing a downward trajectory, while credit costs remain stable or showing a slight increase, with LLR remaining relatively stable at 4.0%.

On the balance sheet, the bank booked loan and deposit growth of +19% y-y and +36% y-y, respectively, which brought LDR to 85% (-1,180bp y-y). We expect loan growth to remain stable in subsequent months towards FY26 growth of 8-10% (according to management guidance). Key observation on deposits growth came from current account (CA) and time deposits (TD) which rose +49% and +47% y-y, respectively. These, in our opinion, came from the government and Danantara placements.

Valuation and risks

Our TP of IDR5,500 is based on DuPont analysis with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 8.5%, beta of 1.04x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 15.6%. Our TP implies 1.2x FY26F P/B (vs current price valuation of 1.0x) and 9.9x FY26F P/E (vs current price valuation of 8.1x). Key risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit costs and opex growth.

Fig. 2: BBNI – monthly results

BNI - Monthly IDRbn	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD-26	YTD-25	Y-Y	% of FY26F	FY26F
Gross Interest Income	5,477	6,157	6,158	0.0%	12.4%	6,158	5,477	12%	8%	79,053
Gross Interest Expenses	2,303	2,349	2,432	3.5%	5.6%	2,432	2,303	6%	7%	34,258
NII	3,174	3,807	3,726	-2.1%	17.4%	3,726	3,174	17%	8%	44,795
PPOP	2,476	4,576	2,819	-38.4%	13.9%	2,819	2,476	14%	8%	35,734
Provision exp	514	2,553	780	-69.5%	51.6%	780	514	52%	8%	10,142
Net profit	1,630	1,728	1,686	-2.5%	3.5%	1,686	1,630	3%	8%	21,025
Comprehensive profit	2,049	2,455	957	-61.0%	-53.3%	957	2,049	-53%
YTD loan growth	-1.5%	15.9%	17.4%
Y-Y loan growth	10.3%	15.9%	19.3%
M-M loan growth	-1.5%	7.3%	1.3%
YTD deposit growth	-2.3%	28.9%	32.7%
Y-Y deposit growth	-0.1%	28.9%	35.8%
M-M deposit growth	-2.3%	7.4%	2.9%
Asset yield (annualised)	6.5%	6.2%	6.0%
COF (annualised)	3.1%	2.6%	2.6%
NIM (annualised)	3.8%	3.8%	3.6%			3.6%	3.8%
Credit cost (annualised)	0.8%	3.6%	1.1%			1.1%	0.8%
Risk-adj NIM	3.0%	0.2%	2.5%			2.8%	3.2%
LDR	96.8%	86.4%	85.0%
LLR	5.1%	4.0%	4.0%
CASA ratio	70.7%	70.4%	68.4%
Monthly CIR	47.8%	46.2%	49.4%
B/S ROAE (annualised)	12.3%	12.4%	12.0%
B/S ROAA (annualised)	1.8%	1.6%	1.5%
Loan-to-CASA	139.1%	114.3%	122.8%
BBNI - B/S IDRbn	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD-26	YTD-25
Total assets IDRbn	1,075,377	1,306,334	1,344,083	2.9%	25.0%	2.9%	-0.8%
Gross Loans IDRbn	749,824	883,013	894,294	1.3%	19.3%	1.3%	-1.5%
LLR IDRbn	38,309	35,090	35,700	1.7%	-6.8%	1.7%	0.0%
Net loans IDRbn	711,515	847,923	858,595	1.3%	20.7%	1.3%	-1.6%
Deposits	774,280	1,021,895	1,051,491	2.9%	35.8%	2.9%	-2.3%
- CA IDRbn	297,051	433,720	443,703	2.3%	49.4%	2.3%	-1.5%
- SA IDRbn	250,615	285,716	275,378	-3.6%	9.9%	-3.6%	-2.4%
- TD IDRbn	226,614	302,459	332,410	9.9%	46.7%	9.9%	-3.4%
CASA IDRbn	547,667	719,436	719,081	0.0%	31.3%	0.0%	-1.9%
Equities IDRbn	160,154	167,959	168,846	0.5%	5.4%	0.5%	1.3%

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

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Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 5,500
Closing price 23 February 2026	IDR 4,500

Research Analysts

Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Tags: BANKS, Bank Negara Indonesia, BBNI, BBNI JK, BBNI IJ, Erwin Wijaya

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Jan-26 results: Decent start

Jan-26 results: Decent start

Fig. 1: BBNI – Jan-26 y-y performance %

Fig. 2: BBNI – monthly results

Fig. 3: BBNI – 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBNI – LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Rating Table

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Jan-26 results: Decent start

Fig. 1: BBNI – Jan-26 y-y performance %

Fig. 2: BBNI – monthly results

Fig. 3: BBNI – 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBNI – LLR vs 12MMA WO %

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