Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results
BBCA’s bank-only Jul-24 earnings of IDR4.9tr (+1% m-m / +17% y-y) brings YTD Jul-24 headline profit to
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Valuation and Risks
Fig. 1: BRIS YTD Apr-26 y-y performance %
Fig. 2: BRIS – monthly results
| BRIS monthly results | Apr-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | M-M | Y-Y | YTD-26 | YTD-25 | YTD Y-Y% | % of FY26F | FY26F |
| Monthly NII (IDRmn) | 1,531,963 | 2,093,051 | 2,018,010 | 1,707,064 | -15% | 11% | 7,235,562 | 6,307,261 | 15% | 32% | 22,591,408 |
| Monthly PPOP (IDRmn) | 952,996 | 1,302,223 | 1,247,145 | 928,773 | -26% | -3% | 4,361,298 | 4,041,349 | 8% | 31% | 14,178,965 |
| Monthly net profit (IDRmn) | 502,733 | 858,889 | 842,588 | 605,013 | -28% | 20% | 2,805,112 | 2,381,530 | 18% | 34% | 8,342,558 |
| Monthly prov (IDRmn) | 303,954 | 195,125 | 162,723 | 151,971 | -7% | -50% | 754,064 | 968,367 | -22% | 24% | 3,141,902 |
| Asset yield (annualised) | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | |||||
| Cost of fund (annualised) | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | |||||
| NIM (annualised) | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | |||||
| Credit cost (annualised) | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | |||||
| LLR | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | |||||||
| LDR | 87.5% | 82.6% | 86.0% | 85.9% | |||||||
| Loan as % earning asset | 72.9% | 72.4% | 73.8% | 75.8% | |||||||
| CASA ratio | 60.0% | 61.6% | 62.7% | 63.5% | |||||||
| Monthly CIR | 50.0% | 52.1% | 47.7% | 56.4% | |||||||
| B/S ROAE | 12.8% | 20.0% | 19.5% | 14.2% | |||||||
| B/S ROAA | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | |||||||
| MoM loan growth | 0.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | |||||||
| YoY loan growth | 14.2% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 15.7% | |||||||
| MoM deposit growth | 1.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | |||||||
| YoY deposit growth | 10.5% | 16.2% | 18.0% | 17.9% | |||||||
| BRIS - IDRbn | Apr-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | M-M | Y-Y | YTD-26 | YTD-25 | 3-yr Cagr | ||
| Gross financings | 283,465 | 314,354 | 324,172 | 327,990 | 1% | 16% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 10.4% | ||
| Provisions | 10,526 | 11,039 | 15,039 | 15,043 | 0% | 43% | 36.3% | 1.8% | 14.9% | ||
| Net loans | 272,939 | 303,315 | 309,133 | 312,946 | 1% | 15% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 10.2% | ||
| Deposits (inc Wadiah) | 323,948 | 380,488 | 376,798 | 381,940 | 1% | 18% | 0.4% | -1.1% | 8.7% | ||
| CASA | 194,530 | 234,455 | 236,243 | 242,469 | 3% | 25% | 3.4% | -1.2% | 10.2% | ||
| - CA | 59,111 | 71,828 | 71,724 | 77,230 | 8% | 31% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 11.5% | ||
| - SA | 135,419 | 162,628 | 164,519 | 165,239 | 0% | 22% | 1.6% | -3.6% | 9.7% | ||
| - TD | 129,418 | 146,033 | 140,555 | 139,471 | -1% | 8% | -4.5% | -0.9% | 6.2% | ||
| Total Wadiah | 74,189 | 91,102 | 89,018 | 89,912 | 1% | 21% | -1.3% | -0.3% | 9.1% | ||
| - CA | 19,117 | 27,790 | 25,649 | 24,759 | -3% | 30% | -10.9% | -0.2% | 5.4% | ||
| - SA | 55,071 | 63,311 | 63,369 | 65,153 | 3% | 18% | 2.9% | -0.4% | 10.7% | ||
| Wadiah % of total deposits | 22.9% | 23.9% | 23.6% | 23.5% | 0% | 3% | -1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | ||
| Equities | 47,491 | 51,953 | 50,769 | 51,358 | 1% | 8% | -1.1% | 5.4% | 8.2% | ||
| Assets | 402,713 | 456,193 | 460,131 | 451,726 | -2% | 12% | -1.0% | -1.4% | 8.1% |
Fig. 3: BRIS - 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %
Fig. 4: BRIS - LLR vs 12MMA WO %
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Remains | IDR 3,250 |
| Closing price 25 May 2026 | IDR 1,935 |
Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)
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