AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) (Buy) - Stealth buyback amid short-term hiccups
AKRA delivered weak 9M24 result as expected, due to the weak trading business as
Plantation MW NS 461 12th Jun, 2026
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From cyclical pure-play to integrated
energy-chemicals-infrastructure business TPIA is Indonesia's largest integrated
petrochemical producer, backed by the Barito Pacific group with SCG Chemicals
(since 2011) and Thai Oil (since 2021) as strategic partners. The company is
a market leader in several of the local petrochemical products. In just three
years it has transformed from a ~USD1.8bn single-cracker asset running at
negative margins (FY22–24) into a USD7–10bn revenue platform spanning energy,
chemicals and infrastructure. Strategic turnaround; added growth from
retail and the CA-EDC plant. The 2025 completion of the Shell Singapore
(Aster) acquisition established a new energy arm — a 237kbpd refinery and a
1.1Mtpa cracker — diversifying TPIA away from pure petrochemical-spread
dependency, which had endured prolonged negative margins on Chinese
overcapacity. Energy is now the single largest contributor, at 55% of 1Q26
revenue. TPIA also completed the Esso fuel-retail acquisition, integrating
refining, petrochemicals and downstream retail to capture cross-chain
synergies. The next leg of growth is CA-EDC: a USD800mn investment alongside
Danantara and INA, with a 400ktpa caustic soda + 500ktpa EDC facility in
Cilegon on track for 2027 commissioning.
Aster integration paying off —
all-time-high EBIT on elevated refining margins. The Aster acquisition at ~USD255mn was at a
deep discount, turning a thin-margin refinery outlook into immediate value by
booking immediate asset gain of USD1.7bn and USD556mn in energy segment EBIT
in 1Q26 alone. The one-off bargain-purchase gain strengthened balance sheet
and created fresh debt headroom within the 1.0x debt-to-equity covenant. On
the back of strong refining margins amid Middle East tensions, TPIA posted a
consolidated all-time-high EBIT of USD468mn and net profit of USD205mn in
1Q26.
We expect the Singapore benchmark
refining-margin trend to persist, with crack spreads holding >USD10/bbl
(~USD30/bbl during war vs <USD5/bbl pre-war) as Iran-related supply
disruptions continue. Thus, the Aster investment is expected to yield payback
faster than expected paying improving the overall debt structure. Currently
the stock trades at 15.1x FY26 annualized PE compared to 15-16x FY26F
weighted average PE of global petrochemical and oil refinery peers.
Free Float Lifts to 25.7% as SCGC
rebalances TPIA has lifted its public free float from
~10% to 25.7% — well clear of the 15% public float requirement under
Indonesian capital-market rules. The increase was driven by a shareholding
rebalancing by SCG Chemicals (SCGC) as part of its own deleveraging, with
SCGC retaining ~15.71%; the three anchor shareholders — Barito Pacific, SCGC
and Thai Oil — together still hold ~74.3%. The move leaves governance,
management and strategic direction unchanged as TPIA executes its energy,
chemicals and infrastructure growth plans across Southeast Asia.
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INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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