Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - Strong 1Q26 results with profit +14% y-y

Strong 1Q26 results with profit +14% y-y

BBRI delivered strong 1Q26 results, reporting net profit of IDR15.6tn (+14% y-y), equivalent to ~27% of our FY26F forecast. We attribute these strong results to: 1) robust loan growth of +14% y-y, primarily coming from Agrinas (unlisted), which was only disbursed in 2H25; 2) lower credit costs (CoC) of 3.1% (-45bp y-y); and 3) recoveries. One area worth highlighting is that comprehensive profit is down 2% y-y on losses from mark to market (MTM) of available for sale securities. Consolidated NIM improved to 8.0% (+30bp y-y) on lower cost of funds, while gross yield remained stable at 10.5% (-20bp) on changes in earnings asset mix.

One noticeable trend is declining write-off rates, which would suggest stabilizing and potentially declining credit costs in the medium term. For this reason, we see limited downside risks to earnings. The recent share price decline was, in our opinion, largely driven by investors’ concerns about macroeconomics (including exchange rates).

1Q26 results summary

NII rose to IDR40.2tn (+2% q-q; +12% y-y), with implied consolidated NIM at 8.0% (+30bps y-y). This represents 25% of our FY26F projection.
PPOP increased to IDR32.2tn (-2% q-q; +8% y-y), accounting for 26% of our FY26F estimate.
Credit costs (CoC) totalled IDR12.1tn, implying CoC of 314bp (-24bp q-q; -45bp y-y). This brings risk-adjusted NIM to 5.3% (+10bp q-q; +60bp y-y). We expect NIM and CoF to remain stable for the remainder of 2026F, unless we see considerable change in earnings asset mix.
Net profit came in at IDR15.6tn (-2% q-q; +14% y-y), representing 27% of our FY26F estimate. This implies balance sheet ROAA and ROAE of 2.9% (+20bp y-y) and 18.9% (+110bp y-y), respectively.
The bank’s balance sheet showed loans and deposits growth of 14% y-y (+3% q-q) and 9% y-y (+6% q-q), respectively. LDR remained elevated at 100% (+300bp y-y). NPL and LAR stood at 2.9% (+10bp y-y) and 10.3% (-100bp y-y), with coverage ratios at 187bp and 60bp, respectively.

Valuation and risks

We derive our TP of IDR4,500 using DuPont analysis, with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, beta of 0.9x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 18.0%. Our TP implies 2.1x 2026F P/B (vs 1.4x currently) and 11.6x 2026F P/E (vs 7.9x currently). Risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, and tighter liquidity competition, which could increase funding costs, worsening credit quality that would raise credit costs, and higher opex. Changes in management could affect the bank’ s write-off policies and thus, credit costs. This would ultimately affect the bank’s near-term earnings, in our view.

Fig. 1: BBRI consolidated 1Q26 summary %

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 2: BBRI – Bank-only vs consolidated comp

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 3: BBRI quarterly results

BBRI Consolidated IDRbn	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	1Q26	QoQ %	YoY %	2026F	vs FY26F
Int inc	49,838	52,538	52,784	52,623	52,838	0.4	6.0	219,424	24.1
Int exp	13,987	15,115	15,068	13,116	12,683	(3.3)	(9.3)	57,812	21.9
NII	35,852	37,423	37,717	39,507	40,155	1.6	12.0	161,613	24.8
Total op inc	61,007	65,747	64,951	75,365	85,702	13.7	40.5	219,040	39.1
PPOP	29,894	28,379	28,400	32,694	32,167	(1.6)	7.6	126,134	25.5
Prov	12,276	10,996	10,317	12,511	12,108	(3.2)	(1.4)	50,647	23.9
PBT	17,618	17,383	18,083	20,183	20,060	(0.6)	13.9	75,486	26.6
NP	13,673	12,603	14,502	15,874	15,634	(1.5)	14.3	58,694	26.6
						QoQ %	YoY %
Total assets	2,098,229	2,106,371	2,123,447	2,135,371	2,249,834	5.4	7.2
Gross Loans	1,373,661	1,416,619	1,438,109	1,521,486	1,562,451	2.7	13.7
- Provisions	81,579	81,170	80,747	82,894	84,074	1.4	3.1
Net loans	1,292,081	1,335,449	1,357,362	1,438,592	1,478,377	2.8	14.4
Deposits	1,421,600	1,482,120	1,474,783	1,466,844	1,555,124	6.0	9.4
- Current accounts	391,613	414,483	435,071	448,204	452,866	1.0	15.6
- Saving accounts	543,337	556,463	562,551	587,586	605,752	3.1	11.5
- Time deposits	486,650	511,174	477,161	431,054	496,506	15.2	2.0
Equities	305,854	322,072	337,898	330,941	345,062	4.3	12.8
LARs	155,694	157,678	159,769	154,002	160,470	4.2	3.1

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 4: BBRI ratios

BBRI Consol - Ratios %	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	1Q26
Loans q-q	1.4	3.1	1.5	5.8	2.7
Loans y-y	5.0	6.0	6.3	12.3	13.7
Deposits q-q	4.1	4.3	(0.5)	(0.5)	6.0
Deposits y-y	0.4	6.7	8.2	7.4	9.4
ROAE	17.4	16.1	17.6	19.0	18.5
CAR	24.0	25.0	25.4	23.5	22.9
CIR	51.0	56.8	56.3	56.6	62.5
LDR	96.6	95.6	97.5	103.7	100.5
LLR	5.9	5.7	5.6	5.4	5.4
NPL %	2.8	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
NPL cov bps	211.8	199.0	192.1	187.8	187.3
Equity to asset ratio	14.6	15.3	15.9	15.5	15.3
CoC bps	360.0	315.3	289.1	338.2	314.1
LARs %	11.3	11.1	11.1	10.1	10.3
LAR cov % RHS	58.7	57.8	56.9	61.0	60.3
Restructured loans	6.7	6.4	6.5	6.1	6.1
Gross yield	10.7	10.9	10.9	10.8	10.5
Cost of funds	3.5	3.6	3.6	3.1	3.0
Spread	7.2	7.3	7.3	7.6	7.6
Risk-adj NIM	4.7	5.2	5.3	5.2	5.3
NIM	7.7	7.8	7.8	8.1	8.0
ROAA %	2.7	2.4	2.7	3.0	2.9
ROAE %	17.7	16.4	17.9	19.4	18.9

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 5: BBRI DuPont analysis

BBRI Dupont % of assets	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	1Q26
Int inc	9.75	10.00	9.98	9.88	9.64
Int exp	2.73	2.88	2.85	2.46	2.31
NII	7.01	7.12	7.13	7.42	7.33
Net premium inc	0.21	(0.12)	0.10	0.06	0.05
NII and net premi	7.22	7.00	7.24	7.48	7.38
Total op inc	11.93	12.51	12.28	14.16	15.63
PPOP	5.85	5.40	5.37	6.14	5.87
Prov	2.40	2.09	1.95	2.35	2.21
PBT	3.44	3.31	3.42	3.79	3.66
NP	2.67	2.40	2.74	2.98	2.85
Assets to Equities	6.50	6.70	6.41	6.37	6.49
ROAE	17.39	16.06	17.58	18.99	18.50
4QMA ROAE	18.28	17.78	17.38	17.50	17.78
Opex	6.08	7.11	6.91	8.02	9.77
4QMA CoC	2.11	2.16	2.08	2.20	2.15

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 6: BBRI monthly results

BBRI Bank-only IDR bn	Mar-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD-26	YTD-25	Y-Y
Interest income	13,706	13,242	12,645	13,993	11%	2%	39,879	39,919	0%
Interest expenses	4,421	3,454	3,289	3,669	12%	-17%	10,412	12,375	-16%
Net interest income	9,285	9,787	9,356	10,324	10%	11%	29,466	27,545	7%
PPOP	7,701	8,758	8,392	8,558	2%	11%	25,708	25,146	2%
Provision exp	2,138	4,128	3,410	3,299	-3%	54%	10,837	11,087	-2%
Net profit	4,482	3,725	4,010	4,125	3%	-8%	11,860	11,091	7%
Comprehensive profit	3,682	3,699	3,156	3,676	16%	0%	10,531	11,302	-7%
MoM loan growth	0.6%	0.9%	-0.6%	0.9%
YoY loan growth	3.8%	12.0%	10.5%	10.7%
YTD loan growth	0.9%	0.9%	0.3%	1.1%
MoM deposit growth	2.6%	2.4%	0.9%	2.7%
YoY deposit growth	0.4%	10.0%	9.3%	9.4%
YTD deposit growth	4.1%	2.4%	3.3%	6.1%
LDR	86.5%	90.5%	89.2%	87.6%
NIM (annualised)	6.2%	6.4%	6.0%	6.2%			6.0%	6.2%
LLR	5.9%	5.5%	5.7%	5.5%			5.7%	6.5%
CoC (annualised)	2.1%	3.7%	3.0%	2.9%			3.2%	3.6%
Risk-adj NIM %	4.8%	3.7%	3.8%	4.2%			3.8%	3.7%
CASA ratio	66%	70%	67%	68%
CIR (annualised)	45%	36%	35%	42%
B/S ROAE (annualised)	18.3%	14.8%	15.8%	16.1%
B/S ROAA (annualised)	2.8%	2.3%	2.4%	2.5%
Asset yield (annualised)	9.2%	8.6%	8.1%	8.4%
COF (annualised)	3.5%	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%
Leverage ratio x	6.9	6.5	6.5	6.5
Cash ratio %	1.7%	1.3%	1.3%	1.6%
LDR %	86.6	90.5	89.2	87.7
Loan-to-CASA %	131.2%	129.5%	132.3%	128.4%
Monthly personnel exp	3,405	2,616	2,362	2,902	23%	-15%	7,879	7,615	3%
As % of assets	2.2	1.6	1.4	1.7
3 MMA personnel as % of assets	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.6

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 7: BBRI – LLR % vs 12MMA WO %

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 4,500
Closing price 29 April 2026	IDR 3,070

Research Analysts

Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Tags: BANKS, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, BBRI, BBRI JK, BBRI IJ, Erwin Wijaya

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - Strong 1Q26 results with profit +14% y-y

Strong 1Q26 results with profit +14% y-y

Fig. 1: BBRI consolidated 1Q26 summary %

Fig. 2: BBRI – Bank-only vs consolidated comp

Fig. 3: BBRI quarterly results

Fig. 4: BBRI ratios

Fig. 5: BBRI DuPont analysis

Fig. 6: BBRI monthly results

Fig. 7: BBRI – LLR % vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 8: BBRI – 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Rating Table

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - Towards more commercial micro

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ - Buy - Operating 1H24 results were below

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - YTD Jul-24 bank only results - steady progress

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - ROAE uptrend on positive micro trends

Bank Central Asia -BBCA IJ- Buy - Steady growth reiterate Buy new TP IDR13200

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - Strong 1Q26 results with profit +14% y-y

Fig. 1: BBRI consolidated 1Q26 summary %

Fig. 2: BBRI – Bank-only vs consolidated comp

Fig. 3: BBRI quarterly results

Fig. 4: BBRI ratios

Fig. 5: BBRI DuPont analysis

Fig. 6: BBRI monthly results

Fig. 7: BBRI – LLR % vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 8: BBRI – 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

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