Indonesia Banks - Jan-26 results summary: improved performance

Jan-26 results summary: improved performance

Indonesia’s major banks — BBCA IJ, BRIS IJ, BMRI IJ, BBNI IJ and BBRI IJ (all rated Buy) — have reported bank-only YTD Jan-26 results, which were broadly in line with expectations and reflect a solid start to the year. While it remains early, current trends suggest earnings are tracking in line with, or modestly ahead of, our FY26F forecasts.

We expect system liquidity to gradually improve through 2026F, which should help contain funding costs and limit further margin compression. This view is supported by stronger-than-expected fiscal spending to stimulate growth, increased fund placements by the Ministry of Finance, and dividend proceeds channelled by Danantara (unlisted) into SOE banks. These factors have already contributed to firmer deposits growth and continued M2 expansion (+10.6% y-y in Dec-25), alleviating system liquidity tightness.

Although asset yields have continued to compress, funding costs appear to have stabilized. The average monthly cost of funds (CoF) across the major banks has moderated to ~2.2% (-40bp y-y) and has largely plateaued in recent months. Assuming Bank Indonesia maintains a stable rate environment, we expect CoF to remain broadly stable in 1H26F. This should support more resilient net interest margins (NIM), which have held at around ~5.0% on a monthly basis as of Jan-26. Greater NIM stability enhances core earnings (PPOP) visibility and provides a firmer earnings base for FY26F, mitigating potential downside risks from credit normalization.

Among the group, BBCA, BMRI and BRIS remain our preferred names, supported by consistent profit growth and stronger earnings quality. While BBRI reported the highest y-y profit growth (~85%) in Jan-26, we view this as largely attributable to a low base effect in Jan-25. On a normalized basis — assuming Jan-25 credit costs were aligned with the current ~3.7% level — BBRI’s profit growth would have been closer to ~6% y-y.

In terms of loan growth, SOE banks (BBNI, BMRI, BRIS and BBRI) recorded stronger expansion of ~12–19% y-y as of Jan-26, compared to BBCA’s ~6%. We attribute this divergence primarily to greater participation by SOE banks in the government’s Agrinas program.

Summary of Jan-2026 results

Below is a summary of major banks’ Jan-26 results. While still in the early days, we have seen a more stable funding cost trend (hence NIMs). However, we think funding costs cannot go any lower than the current level.

YTD Jan-26 net interest income from major banks +8% y-y
- BBNI +17% y-y
- BRIS +14% y-y
- BMRI +10% y-y
- BBRI +10% y-y
- BBCA -1% y-y
YTD Jan-26 PPOP from major banks +7% y-y
- BRIS +19% y-y
- BBNI +14% y-y
- BMRI +12% y-y
- BBRI +6% y-y
- BBCA flat y-y
YTD Jan-26 CoC for major banks at 1.4% (-50bp y-y)
- BBRI CoC of 3.7% (-190bp y-y)
- BBNI CoC of 1.1% (+30bp y-y)
- BRIS CoC of 1.1% (flat y-y)
- BMRI CoC of 0.4% (-10bp y-y)
- BBCA CoC of 0.3% (-50bp y-y)
YTD Jan-26 implied risk-adj NIM for major banks at 3.9% (+30bp y-y)
- BBCA 5.2% (-30bp y-y) as NIM @ 5.4% (-60bp y-y)
- BRIS 4.1% (+10bp y-y) as NIM @ 4.9% (+20bp y-y)
- BMRI 3.9% (-20bp y-y) as NIM @ 4.2% (-30bp y-y)
- BBRI 3.7% (+140bp y-y) as NIM @ 6.4% (+20bp y-y)
- BBNI 2.8% (-40bp y-y) as NIM @ 3.6% (-20bp y-y)
YTD Jan-26 profits for major banks +22% y-y
- BBRI +85% y-y
- BRIS +17% y-y
- BMRI +16% y-y
- BBCA +6% y-y
- BBNI +3% y-y

On the balance sheet side, system loan growth remained healthy at +13% y-y as of Jan-26. By bank, BBNI led with +19% y-y growth, followed by BMRI and BRIS at +15% each, BBRI at +12%, and BBCA at +6%. In terms of provisioning buffers, loan loss reserves (LLR) ratios generally moderated y-y but remained prudent. BBRI maintained the highest coverage at ~5.5% (vs. 6.0% in Jan-25), followed by BBNI at ~4.0% (5.1%), BRIS at ~3.5% (3.7%), BBCA at ~3.1% (3.7%), and BMRI at ~2.4% (3.0%). While coverage ratios have declined from elevated levels last year, they remain broadly adequate relative to asset quality trends.

On the funding side, deposits grew a robust +16% y-y at the system level. BBNI recorded the strongest expansion at +36% y-y, followed by BMRI (+17%), BRIS (+16%), BBRI (+10%), and BBCA (+9%). Importantly, savings deposits — a more stable and cost-efficient funding source compared to current accounts or time deposits — continued to show healthy momentum at +8% y-y overall. BRIS posted the strongest savings growth at +14% y-y, followed by BBNI and BBRI at +10% each, BBCA at +8%, and BMRI at +6%. Reflecting the stronger deposit growth relative to loans, the aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) eased to 87.7% in Jan-26 from 90.3% in Jan-25, indicating improving system liquidity and a more balanced funding position across the major banks.

Valuations and risks

BBCA — our TP of IDR10,100 is based on a DuPont analysis, with these key parameters: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, beta of 0.9x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 24.5%. Our TP implies 4.1x FY26F P/B (vs current price valuation of 2.9x) and 21.3x FY26F P/E (vs current price valuation of 14.7x). Risks are worsening economic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit cost and opex growth.

BMRI — Our TP of IDR6,000 is based on a DuPont analysis with key parameters: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 11.0%, beta 1.09x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 18.0%. Our TP implies 1.7x FY26F P/B (vs 1.5x currently) and 9.7x FY26F P/E (vs 8.2x currently). Risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit costs and opex growth.

BRIS – Our TP of IDR3,250 is based on DuPont analysis, with key parameters including: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 15.0%, beta of 1.2x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 17.6%. Our TP implies 2.6x FY26F P/B (vs 1.7x currently) and 17.9 FY26F P/E (vs 13.2x currently). Risks are worsening economic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit cost and opex growth.

BBRI — Our TP of IDR4,500 is based on DuPont analysis, with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, beta of 0.9x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 18.0%. Our TP implies 2.1x 2026F P/B (vs 1.8x currently) and 11.6x 2026F P/E (vs 10.1x currently). Risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, and tighter liquidity competition, which could increase funding costs, worsening credit quality which would raise credit costs, and higher opex. Changes in management could affect the bank’s write-off policies and thus, credit costs. This would ultimately affect the bank’s near-term earnings, in our view.

BBNI — Our TP of IDR5,500 is based on DuPont analysis with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 8.5%, beta of 1.04x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 15.6%. Our TP implies 1.2x FY26F P/B (vs current price valuation of 1.0x) and 9.9x FY26F P/E (vs current price valuation of 8.1x). Key risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit costs and opex growth.

Fig. 3: Major banks combined monthly results

Major Banks Combined	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YTD Y-Y
Monthly int inc (IDRbn)	36,198	38,651	38,065	-2%	5%	38,065	36,198	5%
Monthly int exp (IDRbn)	10,862	10,620	10,711	1%	-1%	10,711	10,862	-1%
Monthly NII (IDRbn)	25,336	28,030	27,353	-2%	8%	27,353	25,336	8%
Monthly PPOP (IDRbn)	22,640	28,232	24,154	-14%	7%	24,154	22,640	7%
Monthly prov (IDRbn)	7,277	5,272	5,614	6%	-23%	5,614	7,277	-23%
Monthly net profit (IDRbn)	12,370	18,510	15,063	-19%	22%	15,063	12,370	22%
MoM loan growth	-0.6%	4.0%	0.5%
YoY loan growth	11.9%	11.8%	13.0%
YTD loan growth	-0.6%	11.8%	12.4%
MoM deposit growth	1.3%	3.5%	0.6%
YoY deposit growth	4.1%	17.2%	16.3%
YTD deposit growth	1.3%	17.2%	17.9%
LDR	90.3%	87.8%	87.7%
NIM (annualized)	5.2%	5.2%	5.0%			5.0%	5.2%
Cost of credit (annualized)	2.1%	1.4%	1.4%			1.4%	2.1%
Risk-adj NIM %	3.7%	4.2%	3.9%			3.9%	3.7%
LLR	4.4%	3.7%	3.7%
CASA ratio	74.8%	73.8%	74.2%
Monthly CIR	32.2%	31.7%	31.5%
B/S ROAE (annualized)	15.2%	22.1%	17.9%
B/S ROAA (annualized)	2.4%	3.2%	2.6%


Asset yield (annualized)	7.4%	7.1%	6.9%			6.9%	7.4%
Cost of funds (annualized)	2.6%	2.2%	2.2%			2.2%	2.6%
YTD CIR %	32.2%	33.4%	31.5%

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 4: Monthly results

SUMMARY OF INDO BANKS' MONTHLY RESULTS IDRmn
Interest income	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YTD Y-Y
BBNI	5,476,555	6,156,566	6,157,652	0%	12%	6,157,652	5,476,555	12%
BMRI	10,000,481	10,953,415	10,923,288	0%	9%	10,923,288	10,000,481	9%
BBRI	12,994,602	13,766,986	13,241,523	-4%	2%	13,241,523	12,994,602	2%
BBCA	7,726,284	7,773,948	7,742,197	0%	0%	7,742,197	7,726,284	0%
Major total	36,197,922	38,650,915	38,064,660	-2%	5%	38,064,660	36,197,922	5%
BRIS	2,306,653	2,813,811	2,451,460	-13%	6%	2,451,460	2,306,653	6%
Interest expenses	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YTD Y-Y
BBNI	2,302,817	2,349,355	2,432,078	4%	6%	2,432,078	2,302,817	6%
BMRI	3,455,941	3,646,583	3,710,073	2%	7%	3,710,073	3,455,941	7%
BBRI	4,073,916	3,591,546	3,454,373	-4%	-15%	3,454,373	4,073,916	-15%
BBCA	1,029,439	1,032,974	1,114,675	8%	8%	1,114,675	1,029,439	8%
Major total	10,862,113	10,620,458	10,711,199	1%	-1%	10,711,199	10,862,113	-1%
BRIS	777,973	720,760	702,369	-3%	-10%	702,369	777,973	-10%
Net int inc	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YTD Y-Y
BBNI	3,173,738	3,807,211	3,725,574	-2%	17%	3,725,574	3,173,738	17%
BMRI	6,544,540	7,306,832	7,213,215	-1%	10%	7,213,215	6,544,540	10%
BBRI	8,920,686	10,175,440	9,787,150	-4%	10%	9,787,150	8,920,686	10%
BBCA	6,696,845	6,740,974	6,627,522	-2%	-1%	6,627,522	6,696,845	-1%
Major total	25,335,809	28,030,457	27,353,461	-2%	8%	27,353,461	25,335,809	8%
BRIS	1,528,680	2,093,051	1,749,091	-16%	14%	1,749,091	1,528,680	14%
CoC	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YTD Y-Y
BBNI	514,229	2,552,648	779,819	-69%	52%	779,819	514,229	52%
BMRI	568,055	(160,334)	443,118	-376%	-22%	443,118	568,055	-22%
BBRI	5,626,665	3,237,059	4,128,410	28%	-27%	4,128,410	5,626,665	-27%
BBCA	568,277	(357,125)	262,258	-173%	-54%	262,258	568,277	-54%
Major total	7,277,226	5,272,248	5,613,605	6%	-23%	5,613,605	7,277,226	-23%
BRIS	242,039	195,125	303,073	55%	25%	303,073	242,039	25%
PPOP	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YTD Y-Y
BBNI	2,475,901	4,576,271	2,819,344	-38%	14%	2,819,344	2,475,901	14%
BMRI	5,521,946	8,986,572	6,174,491	-31%	12%	6,174,491	5,521,946	12%
BBRI	8,247,606	9,346,923	8,758,342	-6%	6%	8,758,342	8,247,606	6%
BBCA	6,394,758	5,322,643	6,401,631	20%	0%	6,401,631	6,394,758	0%
Major total	22,640,211	28,232,409	24,153,808	-14%	7%	24,153,808	22,640,211	7%
BRIS	1,002,497	1,302,223	1,189,833	-9%	19%	1,189,833	1,002,497	19%
Net profit	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YTD Y-Y
BBNI	1,629,689	1,728,410	1,685,988	-2%	3%	1,685,988	1,629,689	3%
BMRI	4,005,322	7,391,327	4,653,457	-37%	16%	4,653,457	4,005,322	16%
BBRI	2,009,024	4,957,754	3,724,709	-25%	85%	3,724,709	2,009,024	85%
BBCA	4,726,267	4,432,595	4,998,701	13%	6%	4,998,701	4,726,267	6%
Major total	12,370,302	18,510,086	15,062,855	-19%	22%	15,062,855	12,370,302	22%
BRIS	590,308	858,889	690,305	-20%	17%	690,305	590,308	17%

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 5: Monthly results

B/S summary IDRmn
Gross loans	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	749,824,433	883,013,377	894,294,401	1%	19%	1%
BMRI	1,345,682,425	1,533,393,078	1,547,639,494	1%	15%	1%
BBRI	1,209,516,289	1,342,673,712	1,354,086,654	1%	12%	1%
BBCA	893,025,912	961,903,505	948,956,778	-1%	6%	-1%
Major total	4,198,049,059	4,720,983,672	4,744,977,327	1%	13%	1%
BRIS	276,464,117	314,354,409	318,383,069	1%	15%	1%
Customer deposits	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	774,280,153	1,021,895,200	1,051,490,547	3%	36%	3%
BMRI	1,394,401,967	1,674,679,144	1,635,487,341	-2%	17%	-2%
BBRI	1,360,730,373	1,460,703,078	1,496,312,393	2%	10%	2%
BBCA	1,121,844,104	1,221,061,966	1,226,900,376	0%	9%	0%
Major total	4,651,256,597	5,378,339,388	5,410,190,657	1%	16%	1%
BRIS	320,051,953	380,488,303	369,837,347	-3%	16%	-3%
Provisioning (B/S)	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	38,309,448	35,090,063	35,699,502	2%	-7%	2%
BMRI	39,951,594	37,706,295	37,637,642	0%	-6%	0%
BBRI	73,009,203	72,903,722	74,542,304	2%	2%	2%
BBCA	32,857,892	29,390,498	29,536,981	0%	-10%	0%
Major total	184,128,137	175,090,578	177,416,429	1%	-4%	1%
BRIS	10,359,235	11,039,213	11,192,978	1%	8%	1%
Demand deposits	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	297,051,165	433,720,089	443,702,517	2%	49%	2%
BMRI	588,706,161	639,852,316	645,847,759	1%	10%	1%
BBRI	366,815,681	450,129,463	458,410,379	2%	25%	2%
BBCA	361,773,050	431,029,026	432,450,718	0%	20%	0%
Major total	1,614,346,057	1,954,730,894	1,980,411,373	1%	23%	1%
BRIS	58,483,630	71,827,737	74,326,392	3%	27%	3%
Savings deposits	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	250,615,389	285,715,876	275,377,990	-4%	10%	-4%
BMRI	516,707,694	546,211,100	546,567,322	0%	6%	0%
BBRI	531,846,847	584,892,761	586,840,825	0%	10%	0%
BBCA	563,284,937	600,636,235	606,455,481	1%	8%	1%
Major total	1,862,454,867	2,017,455,972	2,015,241,618	0%	8%	0%
BRIS	136,307,357	162,627,660	155,109,145	-5%	14%	-5%
Time deposits	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	226,613,599	309,966,854	309,966,854	0%	37%	0%
BMRI	288,988,112	488,615,728	443,072,260	-9%	53%	-9%
BBRI	461,506,768	425,066,471	450,446,482	6%	-2%	6%
BBCA	195,409,764	187,902,285	186,517,253	-1%	-5%	-1%
Major total	1,172,518,243	1,411,551,338	1,390,002,849	-2%	19%	-2%
BRIS	125,260,966	146,032,906	140,401,810	-4%	12%	-4%
Asset	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	1,075,376,582	1,306,333,746	1,344,083,120	3%	25%	3%
BMRI	1,923,399,372	2,228,096,582	2,191,915,428	-2%	14%	-2%
BBRI	1,826,724,104	1,931,535,859	1,967,683,415	2%	8%	2%
BBCA	1,430,855,803	1,537,371,463	1,559,675,229	1%	9%	1%
Major total	6,256,355,861	7,003,337,650	7,063,357,192	1%	13%	1%
BRIS	398,942,911	456,192,606	441,247,278	-3%	11%	-3%
Equity	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	M-M	Y-Y	YTD 2026
BBNI	160,153,516	167,959,066	168,846,331	1%	5%	1%
BMRI	261,665,706	261,962,304	266,219,462	2%	2%	2%
BBRI	301,965,936	299,496,175	303,194,410	1%	0%	1%
BBCA	258,048,392	271,657,765	275,324,481	1%	7%	1%
Major total	981,833,550	1,001,075,310	1,013,584,684	1%	3%	1%
BRIS	45,662,311	51,952,874	52,449,069	1%	15%	1%

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 6: Major banks ratios

Major banks ratio summary %
NIM	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26
BBNI	3.8%	3.8%	3.6%
BMRI	4.5%	4.3%	4.2%
BBRI	6.2%	6.7%	6.4%
BBCA	6.0%	5.5%	5.4%
Major total	5.1%	5.1%	4.9%
BRIS	4.7%	5.9%	4.9%
Risk-adj NIM	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26
BBNI	3.2%	1.3%	2.8%
BMRI	4.1%	4.4%	3.9%
BBRI	2.3%	4.6%	3.7%
BBCA	5.5%	5.8%	5.2%
Major total	3.6%	4.1%	3.9%
BRIS	4.0%	5.3%	4.1%
B/S ROAE	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26
BBNI	12.3%	12.4%	12.0%
BMRI	18.5%	34.0%	21.1%
BBRI	8.0%	19.4%	14.8%
BBCA	22.2%	19.7%	21.9%
Major total	15.3%	21.4%	17.5%
BRIS	15.6%	20.0%	15.9%
12MMA Major Banks	19.1%	18.1%	18.3%
12MMA BBNI	14.3%	12.7%	12.7%
12MMA BMRI	21.5%	20.8%	21.0%
12MMA BBRI	17.5%	16.8%	17.4%
12MMA BBCA	23.1%	22.2%	22.2%
B/S ROAA	Jan-25	Dec-25	Jan-26
BBNI	1.8	1.6	1.5
BMRI	2.5	4.1	2.5
BBRI	1.3	3.1	2.3
BBCA	4.0	3.5	3.9
Major total	2.4	3.2	2.6
BRIS	1.8	2.3	1.8
12MMA Major Banks	3.0	2.8	2.8
12MMA BBNI	2.1	1.8	1.8
12MMA BMRI	2.9	2.6	2.6
12MMA BBRI	2.8	2.6	2.7
12MMA BBCA	4.0	3.9	3.9

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

INVESTMENT RATINGS
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Research Analysts

Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Tags: BANKS, Indonesia Banks, Erwin Wijaya

Indonesia Banks - Jan-26 results summary: improved performance

Jan-26 results summary: improved performance

Fig. 1: Deposit and loan growths comparisons

Fig. 2: P&L comparisons

Fig. 3: Major banks combined monthly results

Fig. 4: Monthly results

Fig. 5: Monthly results

Fig. 6: Major banks ratios

Fig. 7: NIM trends

Fig. 8: NIM vs LDR trends

Fig. 9: CoF trends

Fig. 10: LLR trends

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - Towards more commercial micro

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ - Buy - Operating 1H24 results were below

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - YTD Jul-24 bank only results - steady progress

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - ROAE uptrend on positive micro trends

Bank Central Asia -BBCA IJ- Buy - Steady growth reiterate Buy new TP IDR13200

Indonesia Banks - Jan-26 results summary: improved performance

Fig. 1: Deposit and loan growths comparisons

Fig. 2: P&L comparisons

Fig. 3: Major banks combined monthly results

Fig. 4: Monthly results

Fig. 5: Monthly results

Fig. 6: Major banks ratios

Fig. 7: NIM trends

Fig. 8: NIM vs LDR trends

Fig. 9: CoF trends

Fig. 10: LLR trends

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