Flocking back to Financials, TMT, and FMCG

May-26 flows mark a near-complete reversal to that of April’s: investors sold commodities and rotated back into conventional blue-chips such as financials, TMT, and FMCG, with both local and foreign institutions crowding into the same trade. In our view, the whipsaw underscores that the market remains highly sensitive to policy direction and narratives, trading on news flow rather than fundamentals. We attribute the shift to elevated uncertainty across the commodity sector following recent news flows (see here and here). We continue to prefer USD earners and high-yield domestic names.

Local investors’ top adds: TLKM, BBCA, BBRI, BBNI; top sell: MDKA

Amid elevated commodity-sector uncertainty, domestic institutions rotated into TMT and financials, recovering their lightest weightings since 2023. TMT exposure rose to 9.1% of AUM (Apr-26: 7.8%), driven by TLKM at 7.2% (vs Apr-26: 6.0%).

Financials exposure climbed to 28.8% of AUM (Apr-26: 26.1%) as local investors raised holdings in the four large banks by 0.3-0.9% of AUM each. In FMCG, the top adds were ICBP and INDF, and UNVR. A reduction in Metal stocks was the consensus call, with the segment exposure dropping to 9% (Apr-26: 11.5%), led by MDKA and INCO.

Foreign investors’ top adds: TLKM, BBCA, BBRI, BBNI; top sell: AMMN

Foreign positioning was broadly in line with locals – adding financials and TMT, and trimming metals. TMT exposure grew to 11.3% of AUM (Apr-26: 9.7%), as TLKM rose to 9.8% (Apr-26: 8.5%). Financials rebounded to 47% of AUM (Apr-26: 44.6%), led by BBCA, BBRI, and BBNI. In FMCG, foreign investors added UNVR, INDF, and CMRY. AMMN (Not rated) was the top sell, aligned with its exclusion from the MSCI Standard Index.

Apr-26 fact sheet analysis: elevated cash position

Our mutual fund tracker, covering 41 funds, points to a cash balance of 10.5% of AUM in Apr-26 (vs 6.5% in Dec-25), its highest level YTD. In absolute terms, cash rose to IDR4.1tn (Dec-25: IDR2.6tn). YTD AUM, however, declined just 1%, as a 12% rise in issued units (i.e., subscriptions) largely offset the 11% drag from market performance.

Maintain OW on select consumer names and USD earners

We continue to prefer bottom-up stock picking over broad sector calls. Against evolving commodity governance, we favor consumer names with light positioning and meal-program exposure: ULTJ, CMRY, AMRT, and WIIM. We also like MYOR, the ~50% export mix of which offers shelter against rupiah depreciation, and ICBP, a beneficiary of lower local CPO prices feeding into COGS plus improving overseas contribution.

In commodities, we focus our picks on sectors with localized demand; we prefer the oil and gold sectors with our top picks being MEDC, ANTM, and INDY.

 

Fig. 1: Sectoral movement in May vs Apr 2026 – out of commodities, back to conventional blue chips

 

Fig. 2: Most added and sold stocks m-m – trimmed commodities, reverted to financials, TMT, and FMCG

Foreign Add	Apr-26	May-26	YTD Change		Foreign Sold	Apr-26	May-26	YTD Change		In top 10 add			In top 10 sold
	% AUM	% AUM				% AUM	% AUM			both local and foreign			both local and foreign
TLKM	8.3%	9.8%	1.53%		AMMN	2.1%	1.2%	-0.84%		BBCA			AADI
BBCA	19.0%	20.1%	1.06%		ASII	7.4%	6.7%	-0.66%		BBRI			ANTM
BBRI	11.4%	12.4%	1.00%		UNTR	2.5%	2.1%	-0.37%		BBNI			ASII
BBNI	2.7%	3.0%	0.26%		ANTM	1.5%	1.1%	-0.34%		CMRY			BRMS
UNVR	0.3%	0.5%	0.19%		BRMS	1.5%	1.2%	-0.31%		INDF			INCO
INDF	1.4%	1.6%	0.18%		AADI	0.6%	0.5%	-0.12%		MAPI			MDKA
MAPI	0.6%	0.8%	0.17%		INCO	0.6%	0.4%	-0.12%		TLKM			UNTR
ISAT	0.8%	0.9%	0.16%		AKRA	0.6%	0.5%	-0.10%		UNVR
CPIN	0.6%	0.8%	0.14%		AMRT	1.3%	1.2%	-0.08%
CMRY	0.3%	0.4%	0.12%		MDKA	0.6%	0.5%	-0.08%
Local Add	Apr-26	May-26	YTD Change		Local Sold	Apr-26	May-26	YTD Change
	% AUM	% AUM				% AUM	% AUM
TLKM	6.0%	7.2%	1.19%		MDKA	2.7%	2.1%	-0.66%
BBCA	6.6%	7.5%	0.91%		INCO	1.7%	1.3%	-0.44%
BBRI	6.9%	7.6%	0.75%		ASII	5.7%	5.3%	-0.38%
BBNI	4.2%	4.7%	0.49%		UNTR	2.2%	1.9%	-0.35%
MAPI	0.9%	1.2%	0.34%		ANTM	2.3%	1.9%	-0.34%
BMRI	6.5%	6.9%	0.34%		AADI	1.0%	0.7%	-0.31%
ICBP	1.6%	1.9%	0.31%		INKP	1.0%	0.7%	-0.30%
INDF	1.7%	1.9%	0.27%		INDY	0.7%	0.4%	-0.26%
UNVR	0.5%	0.7%	0.19%		MEDC	1.0%	0.8%	-0.26%
CMRY	0.5%	0.7%	0.18%		BRMS	0.9%	0.7%	-0.24%

 

Fig. 3: : Local OW/UW trends (vs IDX80 as benchmark) – locals are largely OW in financials, TMT, and FMCG

 

Fig. 4: Foreign OW/UW trends (vs MSCI ID as benchmark) – growing OW in ICBP

 

Fig. 5: Fact sheet analysis – elevated cash levels

 

Fig. 6: AUM attribution analysis – flattish AUM, market performance was offset by higher subscription

AUM Attribution	Dec-25	Apr-26	% Change
AUM (IDRtrn)	39.8	39.4	-1.1%
NAV (IDR/unit)	9,949	8,775	-11.8%
Outstanding Units (bn)	4.00	4.49	12.2%

 

Fig. 7: Most added/reduced stocks from fund fact sheets – consensus view on adding ANTM and reduce BBNI

Most Added Stocks	Dec-25	Apr-26	Addition		Most Reduced Stocks	Dec-25	Apr-26	Addition
ANTM	9	24	15		BBNI	23	12	(11)
MDKA	6	17	11		EXCL	10	1	(9)
INCO	3	11	8		KLBF	9	1	(8)
AADI	-	7	7		ASII	27	20	(7)
TINS	13	18	5		TLKM	26	20	(6)
MEDC	-	5	5		JPFA	4	1	(3)
INKP	4	9	5		BMRI	31	29	(2)
PTBA	-	4	4		BBRI	29	27	(2)
INDY	-	4	4		MYOR	6	4	(2)
SSIA	1	4	3		ICBP	5	3	(2)

 

Fig. 8: Insider shareholding changes, May 2026

Stocks	Shareholder	Apr-26	May-26	Change
AMRT	SIGMANTARA ALFINDO	44.0	38.9	-5.10%
CUAN	PRAJOGO PANGESTU	81.9	80.4	-1.53%
AMMN	PT PESONA SUKSES CEMERLANG	6.2	4.7	-1.46%
ASRI	PT MANUNGGAL PRIME DEVELOPMENT	21.2	20.2	-1.00%
ARTO	PT METAMORFOSIS EKOSISTEM INDONESIA	29.8	28.8	-0.99%
BUMI	UBS SWITZERLAND AG	5.1	4.2	-0.95%
TOBA	HIGHLAND STRATEGIC HOLDINGS PTE LTD	60.4	59.9	-0.46%
MNCN	PT GLOBAL MEDIACOM TBK	39.5	39.2	-0.28%
DEWA	PT ANDHESTI TUNGKAS PRATAMA	6.4	6.2	-0.19%
TOBA	PT TOBA SEJAHTRA	8.0	7.9	-0.06%
Stocks	Shareholder	Apr-26	May-26	Change
AMRT	PT AMANDA CIPTA PERSADA	8.9	14.0	5.10%
ASRI	PT MAYBANK SEKURITAS INDONESIA - REGISTRAR	8.5	9.5	1.00%
AKRA	PT ARTHAKENCANA RAYATAMA	63.7	64.6	0.90%
SSIA	PT HENAN PUTIHRAI ASSET MANAGEMENT	11.4	12.1	0.68%
UNTR	PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK	5.5	5.8	0.32%
RAJA	PT SENTOSA BERSAMA MITRA	35.5	35.7	0.28%
TLKM	THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON	5.9	6.2	0.23%
DSNG	TRIPUTRA INVESTINDO ARYA	28.3	28.4	0.06%
BUKA	PT BUKALAPAK.COM TBK	10.9	11.0	0.05%

 

Fig. 9: Large and mid-cap stocks’ price performance off-peak

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Jupriadi Tan (jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)

Gerald Hugo (gerald.hugo@verdhana.id)